01
Overview
Key revenue metrics · adjust sliders in section 03 to update all figures
Avg Daily Volume (last 30d)
—
from on-chain data
Est. Monthly Volume
—
after elasticity adjustment
Gross Fee Revenue / Mo
—
taker fees collected
Annualised Net Revenue — Base Case
—
Tune assumptions in section 03 · all figures update live
Maker Rebate Cost / Mo
—
paid to LPs
02
Volume Trend
On-chain notional USDC trading volume
Daily volume — last 90 days
Notional USDC per day with 7-day moving average
Monthly volume — last 13 months
Aggregated by calendar month · yellow = current partial month
Peak single day
$477M
Feb 28, 2026
Mar 2026 avg / day
—
month-to-date
Jan–Mar 2026 total
—
Q1 2026 (partial)
YoY growth (Jan)
+32×
vs Jan 2025 avg
03
Fee Model Parameters
All sliders update every section live
Dynamic fee curve — effective rate vs. probability
fee = multiplier × p × (1−p) × qty · peaks at 50¢, near-zero at extremes
Revenue share by category
Share of estimated monthly gross fees (weighted by vol × peak rate)
04
By Category
All 10 market types · fee rates, rebates, estimated revenue contribution
Full fee schedule — all categories
Effective March 30, 2026 · only taker orders pay · maker orders receive rebates daily in USDC
| Category | Status | Peak rate | Formula |
Maker rebate | Vol share | Rev share |
05
Scenarios
Bear / base / bull / stretched bull · monthly & annualised net revenue
Bear case
—
—
Vol −25% · Eff rate 30%
Taker 55% · Rebate 25%
Base case
—
—
Vol −10% · Eff rate 50%
Taker 65% · Rebate 23%
Bull case
—
—
Vol 0% · Eff rate 65%
Taker 70% · Rebate 22%
Stretched bull
—
—
Vol +10% · Eff rate 70%
Taker 75% · Rebate 21%
Gross vs. net revenue — all scenarios
Monthly USD millions · fees collected vs. after maker rebates
Annualised net revenue range
USD millions · bear → stretched bull
Assumption matrix
| Scenario | Vol Δ | Eff rate | Net margin |
|---|
| Bear | −25% | 30% of pk | ~75% |
| Base | −10% | 50% of pk | ~77% |
| Bull | 0% | 65% of pk | ~78% |
| Stretched | +10% | 70% of pk | ~79% |
Valuation context — $20B target
Polymarket reportedly targeting ~$20B valuation (March 2026) · implied revenue multiples at each scenario ARR
Bear ARR multiple
—
at $20B valuation
Base ARR multiple
—
at $20B valuation
Bull ARR multiple
—
at $20B valuation
ARR needed at 50×
$400M
to justify $20B at 50×
06
About this model
Methodology, data sources, and key caveats
What this is
An independent, open revenue model for Polymarket's March 30, 2026 fee expansion
Polymarket charged zero fees on all trades until January 2026. On March 30, taker fees expand from 2 categories to 10 — covering Politics, Finance, Economics, Culture, Tech, Weather, Mentions, and Other. Only Geopolitical/World events remain permanently exempt.
This dashboard models what that means for revenue using the published dynamic fee formula, real on-chain volume data, and assumptions you can adjust live with the sliders in section 03.
The model was independently cross-validated against Messari's March 2026 POLY valuation report — both frameworks use identical fee formula mechanics and agree the $20B target is only defensible in the bull case.
Key caveats
Read before citing these numbers
Volume double-counting
Paradigm (Dec 2025) showed most on-chain dashboards overcount Polymarket volume ~2×. The bear case applies a 50% haircut. Polymarket's own site claims to show single-counted taker volume.
Kalshi ARR updated
WSJ (Mar 2026) reports Kalshi ARR at $1–1.5B, up from $650M in Nov '25. At $1.5B ARR, Kalshi's $20B valuation = 13× revenue. Polymarket's base case at $20B = 97×.
Effective rate sensitivity
Moving the effective rate from 40% to 60% of peak nearly doubles gross revenue. Sports at ~40% of volume suppresses the blended rate — the single most important assumption to watch.
Data sources
Polymarket on-chain CSV (Jan 2023 – Mar 2026)
docs.polymarket.com fee structure (Mar 2026)
Kalshi 2025 fee revenue — Yahoo Finance
Kalshi ARR — WSJ Mar 2026 + Sacra
Double-counting — Paradigm / Storm Slivkoff (Dec 2025)
Category mix — DeFi Rate weekly reports (Jan–Mar 2026)
Cross-validated vs. Messari POLY report (Mar 2026)